00:00 00:00 meeting founders and making decisions is way more of an art than a science 与创始人会面并做出决策更像是一门艺术，而不是一门科学 and as Dalton says unfortunately in this 正如道尔顿在这本书中不幸所说的那样 game I think you have to lose some money before you can really become an expert 游戏我认为你必须先损失一些钱才能真正成为专家 as much as anyone is an expert at at at answering the questions you need to 就像任何人都擅长回答您需要的问题一样 answer to make an investment the the next person who's about to come up has 下一个即将出现的人有进行投资的答案 more wisdom and knowledge about this than perhaps anybody I know 这方面的智慧和知识可能比我认识的任何人都多 before I introduce PB however first for the live streamers I apologize for the 在介绍 PB 之前，首先对直播主播表示歉意 problems we're having with the live stream as I said this is the first time 正如我所说，这是我们第一次在直播中遇到问题 we've done this here in Mountain View so we're bound to have kinks the good news 我们已经在山景城做到了这一点，所以我们一定会遇到好消息 is that everything is going to show up on this site and once it shows up on the 是所有内容都会出现在这个网站上，一旦出现在 00:01 00:01 site it will be more immune from networking issues they're less likely to 网站将更能免受他们不太可能出现的网络问题的影响 be ours and more likely to be yours at that point all of the slides will appear 是我们的，并且更有可能是您的，届时所有幻灯片都会出现 on the site within 24 hours after the session so I believe it's - all of the 会议结束后 24 小时内出现在网站上，所以我相信 - 所有 slides from yesterday are now up with the transcripts from yesterday at 昨天的幻灯片现在与昨天的文字记录放在一起 investor that's startup school.org and we'll do our best to to make the 投资者是startup school.org，我们将尽最大努力使 live stream work as well as possible so the next investor the next presenter 直播工作尽可能顺利，以便下一个投资者成为下一个演示者 excuse me he's also an investor obviously it's Paul Buchheit who has 对不起，他也是一名投资者，显然是 Paul Buchheit been a partner at YC with me as long as I've been here he's been at YC as long 只要我在这里，他就一直是我在 YC 的合伙人 他在 YC 工作的时间一样长 as anyone here I think it's probably seven years he's been hanging around YC 和这里的任何人一样，我想他可能已经在 YC 待了七年了 for even loveland that he has also notably the inventor of gmail which 就连 Loveland 来说，他也是 Gmail 的发明者。 sucks for me because I was part of the team that invented Yahoo Mail so we have 对我来说很糟糕，因为我是发明雅虎邮件团队的一员，所以我们有 00:02 00:02 a lot of good conversations he's still my friend I think he he also created a 很多愉快的谈话，他仍然是我的朋友，我认为他还创造了一个 company called FriendFeed which he sold to Facebook he knows a lot about a lot I 他把一家名为 FriendFeed 的公司卖给了 Facebook，他对我了解很多 guess that's the best way to talk about Paul but but one of the things he does 我猜这是谈论保罗的最好方式，但他所做的事情之一 know a lot about is investing here's a quote from 了解很多关于投资，这是来自 Paul that is actually an important one I would think about it a lot is you think 保罗，这实际上是一个重要的问题，我会思考很多，你认为 about investing I think the best kind of morality is a product that people like 关于投资，我认为最好的道德是人们喜欢的产品 so much that they just want to tell people about it 以至于他们只是想告诉人们这件事 so here's one of the smartest and best investors I know in the world Paul 这是我认识的世界上最聪明、最好的投资者之一保罗 bouquet to talk about that all right so thank you Jeff that was probably 花束谈论这个好吧，谢谢杰夫，这可能是 00:03 00:03 studying the expectations too high so so as Jeff mentioned I've been involved in 研究期望太高，所以正如杰夫提到的，我参与了 startups for a while probably about 20 years now I've been investing for the 创业公司有一段时间了，大概有20年了，现在我一直在投资 past 12 years I've invested in hundreds of companies I've seen thousands here at 过去 12 年里，我投资了数百家公司，我在这里见过数千家公司 YC I've interviewed thousands of founders and so last year I kind of came YC 我采访了数千名创始人，所以去年我来了 to the realization that I needed to stop 意识到我需要停下来 and actually like think about what I had 实际上喜欢想想我所拥有的 done because I spent most of those years 完成了，因为那些年的大部分时间我都花在了 just making somewhat haphazard decisions so I spent a bunch of time trying to 只是做出了一些随意的决定，所以我花了很多时间试图 actually figure out like what are the patterns that gave rise to favorable 实际上弄清楚产生有利影响的模式是什么 outcomes for me and what are the patterns that gave rise to unfavorable 对我来说结果是什么以及导致不利的模式是什么 outcomes with the idea that in the future I can maybe do better so really 结果是我认为将来我也许可以做得更好，所以真的 00:04 00:04 this is like something I more did for myself in my own investing process it 这就像我在自己的投资过程中为自己做的事情 may or may not work for anyone else but it's what what I intend to do and so the 可能对其他人有用，也可能不起作用，但这就是我打算做的，所以 structure of this is I'll tell a series of stories first of favorable outcomes 这个的结构是我将首先讲述一系列有利结果的故事 things that went good for me and then some unfavorable outcomes things that 对我有利的事情，然后是一些不利的结果 did not go good for me and then finally followed by some conclusions about you 对我来说不太好，最后得出了一些关于你的结论 know how I plan to invest going forward so first there's this idea I'm not 知道我计划如何继续投资，所以首先我不知道这个想法 limiting myself to good ideas and this actually started out as a joke 将自己限制在好想法上，这实际上是从一个笑话开始的 about 20 years ago but then I kind of realized it was true a lot of my ideas 大约 20 年前，但后来我意识到我的很多想法都是真的 are not good but it's also really relevant to startups because oftentimes 不好，但它也与初创公司密切相关，因为很多时候 the bad ideas I mean the good ideas look bad 坏主意 我的意思是好主意看起来很糟糕 and the reason for this is that if the idea were obviously good like the 这样做的原因是，如果这个想法明显像 opportunity wouldn't exist big companies are not that dumb they're capable of 机会不会存在 大公司并没有那么愚蠢 他们有能力 executing they have lots of resources they have market power like if they 执行 他们有很多资源 他们有市场力量 就像他们 00:05 00:05 thought there is this you know 10 billion dollar business sitting there 以为有这个你知道的 100 亿美元的生意坐在那里 they would just go do it themselves so necessarily for it to be a good startup 他们会自己去做，所以必然会成为一个好的初创公司 it kind of has to be something that inside of a big company would get shot 这一定是大公司内部会被枪杀的事情 down for being you know stupid or unimportant and actually the example I 因为你知道愚蠢或不重要而实际上是我的例子 like the best is this company I don't know if who recognizes that logo that's 最好的是这家公司我不知道谁认得那个标志 the original Google logo when Google as a research project at Stanford called 最初的谷歌标志，当时谷歌作为斯坦福大学的一个研究项目被称为 backrub it's Larry page's hand in a flatbed 拉里·佩奇的手在平板上按摩 scanner and so you know Google started out as this research project at Stanford 扫描仪，所以你知道谷歌最初是斯坦福大学的一个研究项目 Larry and Sergey were PhD students there and they actually wanted to continue 拉里和谢尔盖是那里的博士生，他们实际上想继续下去 being PhD students and like finish their degree so they went off and tried to 作为博士生并且喜欢完成学位，所以他们开始尝试 sell Google to one of the big internet companies at the time so Yahoo excite 将谷歌出售给当时最大的互联网公司之一，以便雅虎兴奋 Infoseek they made the rounds to all these companies they wanted a million Infoseek 他们拜访了所有他们想要 100 万美元的公司 00:06 00:06 dollars for Google and fortunately everyone said no no what no one thought 谷歌的美元，幸运的是每个人都说不，没有人想到的 it was worth a million dollars they thought search was unimportant they 它价值一百万美元，他们认为搜索并不重要 thought it was just like a commodity sort of a flavor of the month thing 认为它就像一种商品，某种月度风味的东西 they're like oh you're hot now but next month it'll be you know some other 他们就像哦，你现在很性感，但下个月你就会认识其他人了 startup and we'll just hop from one to the next so again like if if this 启动，我们将从一个跳到下一个，就像如果这样 opportunity were obvious Google wouldn't exist 机会很明显谷歌不会存在 so necessarily it has to look kind of bad and so I'll start my story at Google 所以它看起来一定很糟糕所以我将从谷歌开始我的故事 and the reason here is I think I really want to emphasize the absolute 这里的原因是我想我真的想强调绝对 importance in this game of being extremely lucky so the good news is you're all 在这个游戏中非常幸运的重要性所以好消息是你们都 accredited investors supposedly that means you're already among the luckiest 据说，经过认可的投资者这意味着您已经是最幸运的人之一 people on earth but I also like to think about this a lot because you know being 地球上的人们，但我也喜欢思考这个问题，因为你知道 a start-up employee is actually a lot like being an investor except you can 初创公司的员工实际上很像投资者，只不过你可以 00:07 00:07 really only do one at a time and so I've asked myself like how did I end up at 实际上一次只做一个，所以我问自己，我是如何最终做到这一点的 Google like what what took me there in the first thing is just that they 谷歌就像把我带到那里的第一件事就是他们 actually had a product that I used I was a very early user and so I just knew 实际上我使用过一个产品，我是一个非常早期的用户，所以我只知道 about it like they had made something people want namely me they made 就好像他们制造了人们想要的东西，即他们制造的我 something I want and the second thing the second reason is Linux so I was 我想要的东西，第二个原因是 Linux，所以我是 really really really into Linux a friend in college once put it shut the up 真的真的真的很喜欢Linux，一位大学朋友曾经把它闭嘴了 not everything is about Linux so when I went looking for a start-up to go work 并非一切都与 Linux 相关，所以当我寻找一家初创公司上班时 at really my only criteria was that they'd be doing cool stuff with Linux 事实上，我唯一的标准是他们会用 Linux 做一些很酷的事情 and so that was how I ended up at Google is they were building these like 这就是我最终加入谷歌的原因，他们正在构建这样的东西 clusters of Linux machines they're like nothing could be more exciting than that Linux 机器集群，没有什么比这更令人兴奋的了 and when I interviewed there the people were really smart they asked good 当我在那里采访时，人们真的很聪明，他们问得很好 questions interviewed at another startup 另一家初创公司面试的问题 00:08 00:08 when people asked dumb questions and you could really tell the difference what I 当人们问愚蠢的问题时，你真的能分辨出我说的是什么 didn't know was that it was a good business I actually expected that Google 我不知道这是一项好生意，我实际上期望谷歌 would get squashed by like Alta Vista or 会被像 Alta Vista 或 something I didn't go in thinking like I was gonna make money I went in thinking 我没有想到我会赚钱，而是想到了 I would learn something about startups and in fact I did learn some stuff which 我会学到一些关于初创公司的东西，事实上我确实学到了一些东西 was good so I had a good time there Jeff mentioned lost Gmail but eventually it 很好，所以我在那里度过了一段愉快的时光，杰夫提到丢失了 Gmail，但最终还是丢失了 was kind of turning into a big company and I'm interested in startups so kind 有点变成了一家大公司，我对初创公司很感兴趣 of got the itch again to get back involved in startups so I'm looking 再次渴望重新参与初创公司，所以我正在寻找 around and then in early 2005 I see this thing the summer founders program and 大约在 2005 年初，我在夏季创始人计划中看到了这件事 this is this is sort of funny because I don't know a lot of you probably don't 这有点有趣，因为我不认识你们很多人，可能也不认识 know this the very first batch of Y Combinator it was pitched as like a 知道这是第一批 Y Combinator，它的定位就像 replacement for a summer job so the idea 替代暑期工作所以这个想法 was college students instead of going to work at Google as an int 是大学生而不是作为一名实习生去谷歌工作 00:09 00:09 we just come to YC and start a company misil eli k really bad idea to most 我们刚刚来到 YC 并创办了一家公司 Misil eli k 对大多数人来说确实是个坏主意 people in 2005 in fact their original lawyers they tried to work with refused 事实上，2005 年他们试图合作的原律师拒绝了 to do the work he said this is this is terrible we're not going to do it 去做他说的工作，这太可怕了，我们不会做 investors all thought it was a joke they're like no good company is ever 投资者都认为这是一个笑话，他们认为没有什么好公司是这样的 gonna come out of this so how did I end up here how did I end up connected to YC 我要摆脱这一切，我是怎么到这里来的，我是怎么和 YC 联系起来的 and the answer is that Paul Graham had written a lot of really good essays and 答案是保罗·格雷厄姆写了很多非常好的文章 so I had read a lot of his stuff he he was really smart I didn't know him 所以我读了很多他的东西，他真的很聪明，我不认识他 I thought he was really smart I had really good insights and I thought this 我认为他真的很聪明，我有很好的洞察力，我认为 was a really intriguing idea not necessarily a good idea but like 是一个非常有趣的想法，不一定是个好主意，但就像 intriguing interesting and for me I think interesting kind of includes this 有趣有趣，对我来说，我认为有趣的包括这个 element of unpredictable like if I know what the outcome is then there's no 不可预测的因素，比如如果我知道结果是什么，那么就没有 point in getting involved it's the things where I don't know the outcome 参与其中的重点是我不知道结果的事情 00:10 00:10 where I can learn so basically I just cold email PG and it was like hey you 我可以在哪里学习，所以基本上我只是给 PG 发了冷邮件，就像嘿你 know can I help out and so I started hanging out here got to know the first 知道我可以帮忙吗，所以我开始在这里闲逛，首先了解了 or the first batch that was in this building which was the winter oh six 或者第一批在这栋楼里的那是冬天哦六 batch and there was about 12 years ago I 大约12年前我有一批 actually since then haven't met with him invested in every batch I'm a repeat 实际上从那以后就没有见过他投资的每一批我都是重复的 offender but my very first angel investment was was in a YC company 罪犯，但我的第一笔天使投资是在一家 YC 公司 called wufu and here's what the internet thought about it for those of you who 叫做“wufu”，以下是互联网上对它的看法： can't read it which is probably most of them person says is anyone keeping a 无法阅读，这可能是大多数人说的，有人保留了 list of all these new Y Combinator startups seems like it might be 所有这些新 Y Combinator 初创公司的名单似乎可能是 entertaining a year from now after all the hype has died down to go back and 一年后，在所有的炒作都平息之后，再回去吧 look at it I mean sure it seems like it's written in Python and it uses XML 看看它，我的意思是肯定它看起来像是用 Python 编写的并且使用了 XML HTTP requests as being confused with stuff like I have a business plan and my HTTP 请求与诸如我有一个商业计划和我的 00:11 00:11 product satisfies a demand that consumers actually have and I like this 产品满足了消费者的实际需求，我喜欢这个 because it's both kind of like making fun of YC and wufu and it was very 因为这有点像取笑 YC 和 wufu，而且非常有趣 characteristic of the thinking at that time and in fact you know woo-hoo 当时的思维特征，事实上你知道 woo-hoo never did IPO but my investment on that returned like 44 X when SurveyMonkey 从未进行过 IPO，但当 SurveyMonkey 时，我的投资回报率高达 44 倍 bought them and the founder Kevin Hale who's extremely talented ended up being 买下了他们，创始人凯文·黑尔（Kevin Hale）非常有才华，最终成为了 a partner here at YC some years later and no doubt there for help earn me more 几年后，我成为了 YC 的合伙人，毫无疑问，他帮助我赚了更多钱 money hi by helping our startups so you know that there's both an immediate 通过帮助我们的初创公司，您可以立即获得资金 return and then there's like the long-term return the following year I 回报然后第二年就会有长期回报我 invested in this YC company it's called justin.tv the idea was that Justin here 投资了这家名为 justin.tv 的 YC 公司，想法是贾斯汀在这里 was gonna stick a camera on his head and then livestream it to the internet that 要把一个摄像头戴在他的头上，然后将其直播到互联网上 00:12 00:12 was like the idea and at first I was like are you joking like now we're gonna 就像这个想法，一开始我想你是在开玩笑吧，现在我们要 do it I'm like awesome like because again this is like really unpredictable 这样做我感觉棒极了，因为这又是不可预测的 what's gonna happen when you start live streaming your life 24/7 and I guarantee 当你开始 24/7 直播你的生活时会发生什么，我保证 this is not the idea that would come out 这不是会出现的想法 of Google right like you're not going to Google 的权利就像你不会那样 see Larry Page with a camera strapped to his head 24/7 and Norton or should it 看看拉里·佩奇头上绑着相机 24/7 和诺顿还是应该 come out of Google so again this was just like an unpredictable thing and in 来自谷歌，所以这又是一件不可预测的事情，在 fact the company struggled for quite a while which I mentioned because someone 事实上，我提到的公司已经挣扎了很长一段时间，因为有人 asked earlier Dalton you know what if the company is kind of going sideways 之前问道尔顿，你知道如果公司走上歧途怎么办 should i I mean I think the implication was should I like kick the founders 我应该说我认为这意味着我应该踢创始人吗 until they give me my money back the answer is no so this kind of money they 在他们退还我的钱之前，答案是否定的，所以他们会用这种钱 actually even tried to do an aqua hire several years in but no one would a co 实际上，几年前甚至尝试过雇用一名水族，但没有人愿意合作 hire them because they thought they didn't have any talent they couldn't do 雇用他们是因为他们认为自己没有做不到的才能 a talent acquisition because the choirs thought there was no talent 人才收购，因为合唱团认为没有人才 00:13 00:13 fortunately they eventually pivoted to twitch which was focusing on just the 幸运的是，他们最终转向了 twitch，专注于 one part of their product people were streaming all kinds of things on 他们的产品的一部分人们正在流式传输各种各样的东西 justin.tv but Emmitt became interested in specifically video game streaming justin.tv 但埃米特对视频游戏流媒体产生了兴趣 people were streaming their games which I never would have thought was a 人们正在直播他们的游戏，我从来没想过这是一个 business that was a toll prai's to me but that turned out to be a 这件事对我来说是一项收费任务，但结果却是 great business which they sold to Amazon 他们卖给亚马逊的伟大业务 unfortunately for a billion dollars it's probably worth way more than that right 不幸的是，对于十亿美元来说，它的价值可能远不止于此，对吧 now but the other interesting thing I want to point out here is this company 现在但我想指出的另一件有趣的事情是这家公司 had four founders so Emmet who is the CEO of twitch is still the CEO of twitch 有四位创始人，所以 twitch 的首席执行官 Emmet 仍然是 twitch 的首席执行官 at Amazon where it's estimated to be like a twenty billion dollar business at 在亚马逊，它的价值估计相当于 200 亿美元的业务 this point Justin Khan has started a bunch more 贾斯汀·汗 (Justin Khan) 已经开始了更多 startups he was here as a partner at YC for a couple years now he has a new 他作为 YC 的合伙人在这里工作了几年，现在他有了一个新的 00:14 00:14 company called atrium which if you invest in any of our companies going 名为 atrium 的公司，如果您投资我们的任何一家公司 forward you'll probably interact with because they're doing kind of like the 转发您可能会与之互动，因为他们的做法有点像 default legal legal provider now for YC companies Michael Seibel started a 现在，YC 公司的默认法律法律提供商 Michael Seibel 启动了 company called Socialcam which actually was a justin.tv spin-out sold that 名为 Socialcam 的公司实际上是 justin.tv 的衍生公司，出售该产品 Autodesk for 60 million and then became a YC partner and actually he's now the Autodesk 6000万，然后成为YC合伙人，实际上他现在是 CEO of Y Combinator and finally Kyle vote started a company called crews but Y Combinator 的首席执行官和最终凯尔投票创办了一家名为船员的公司，但 you may have heard of because GM bought them for a billion dollars 你可能听说过，因为通用汽车以十亿美元收购了它们 so like that for group of people who had so little talent that no one would 对于一群才华横溢的人来说就像这样，没有人会这样做 talent acquire them I've done some pretty remarkable things 人才获得他们我做了一些非常了不起的事情 all right so eventually I wanted to start my own company I was like REI I 好吧，所以最终我想创办自己的公司，我就像 REI I think I see how this is done I can do better so so that leads me to FriendFeed 我想我知道这是如何完成的，我可以做得更好，这样我就可以使用 FriendFeed know when I decided to start a startup I actually had a lot of ideas probably 知道当我决定创办一家初创公司时，我实际上可能有很多想法 00:15 00:15 most of them were genuinely not good but 他们中的大多数确实不好，但是 the one idea that was totally correct is that I thought the most important thing 一个完全正确的想法是我认为最重要的事情 was having a really great team and so that was sort of the original focus is 拥有一支非常出色的团队，所以这就是最初的重点 just like figuring out who I can get to join on to this and fortunately I 就像弄清楚我可以让谁加入这个项目一样，幸运的是我 managed to convince this guy Brett Taylor to co-found FriendFeed with us in 成功说服布雷特·泰勒 (Brett Taylor) 与我们共同创立 FriendFeed Brett is someone that I knew from Google I hadn't worked with him but I kind of Brett 是我在 Google 认识的人，我没有与他共事过，但我有点 knew him you know we had chatted I knew him by 认识他 你知道我们聊过 我认识他 reputation and the story I like to tell about Brett 声誉和我喜欢讲述的关于布雷特的故事 is he was the p.m. on maps not even or maybe like an APM not even an engineer 他是下午吗？在地图上甚至不是或可能像 APM 甚至不是工程师 and he was frustrated that the product was so slow and clunky this was before 他对以前的产品如此缓慢和笨重感到沮丧 it was launched and so finally one weekend he he was just like you know 它推出了，所以最后一个周末他就像你知道的那样 what I'm just gonna fix it and so he rewrote the entire JavaScript front-end 我只是要修复它，所以他重写了整个 JavaScript 前端 00:16 00:16 over a weekend made it a third the size in ten times as fast as what an entire 在一个周末的时间里，它的尺寸扩大了三分之一，速度是整个机器的十倍 team of developers had been working on for a long time this is the kind of 开发团队已经为此工作了很长时间 person you want to invest in right like that is an absolutely great bet let's 像这样你想投资的人绝对是一个不错的选择，让我们 see so friend Pete generated a lot of buzz unfortunately it didn't generate a 看到这样，朋友皮特引起了很多关注，不幸的是它没有引起关注 lot of growth in part because we ended up competing with this company Facebook 大量增长的部分原因是我们最终与 Facebook 这家公司竞争 so they they turned out to be a very formidable competitor I got a chance to 所以他们被证明是一个非常强大的竞争对手，我有机会 meet Zach he's like really impressive and eventually he came to believe that 遇见扎克，他给人留下了深刻的印象，最终他开始相信 Facebook was unbeatable not by us not by Google not by anyone and that it would Facebook 是不可战胜的，不是我们，不是谷歌，不是任何人，而且它会 therefore be like a Google sized success and therefore we should sell so we sold 因此，就像谷歌规模的成功一样，因此我们应该出售，所以我们出售 00:17 00:17 FriendFeed to Facebook for about half a percent of Facebook's equity which FriendFeed 向 Facebook 出售约 0.5% 的 Facebook 股权 turned out to be a pretty good deal and so the the lesson here I really want to 事实证明这是一笔非常划算的交易，所以我真的很想在这里吸取教训 emphasize is find your betters like you want to find people who are smarter in 强调的是找到比你更好的人，就像你想找到在以下方面更聪明的人一样 everything more insightful than than than you are and I think Bret and and 一切都比你更有洞察力，我认为布雷特和 Zach and the team at Facebook are great examples of this like they were just 扎克和 Facebook 的团队就是很好的例子，就像他们只是 clearly better at it than I am so that's 显然比我更擅长所以 like one of my criteria when I'm meeting a founder if I'm thinking like oh I 就像我在会见创始人时的标准之一，如果我的想法是哦，我 could do this job better than you like I 可以像我一样比你做得更好 shouldn't fund right I only want to fund people who are better than I am right 不应该资助正确的人，我只想资助比我更好的人，对吧 and so this is why it's not that I think idea in market don't matter like those 这就是为什么我认为市场上的想法并不像那些想法那么重要 things are of critical importance you're not gonna 事情至关重要，你不会 build a big company in a tiny market but my belief is that if the founders are 在一个小市场中建立一家大公司，但我相信，如果创始人 actually better than me then they're gonna have better insights they're gonna 实际上比我更好，那么他们会有更好的见解 00:18 00:18 know more than me so I can kind of outsource that part of the thinking to 比我了解更多，所以我可以将这部分思考外包给 the founder and then I just have to figure out like does the founder believe 创始人，然后我只需要弄清楚创始人是否相信 it and so what you want to do here I believe is use your knowledge to probe 所以我相信你在这里想做的是用你的知识来探索 to ask intelligent questions to see if they really do know what they're talking 提出明智的问题，看看他们是否真的知道自己在说什么 about right but but not using it to decide not being like oh you know I'm an 大约是对的，但不是用它来决定不像哦，你知道我是一个 expert on air mattresses I know there's no business here right the challenge of 气垫专家 我知道这里没有什么生意可以应对的挑战 course is finding these great founders so I want to go through a couple more 当然是寻找这些伟大的创始人，所以我想了解更多 examples that I think highlight some traits the first is Meraki this is another 我认为突出一些特征的例子第一个是 Meraki 这是另一个 early investment 2006 and when I went in to meet them in their 2006 年的早期投资，当我去见他们的时候 little office and Mountain View they showed me around they introduced me to 他们带我参观了小办公室和山景城，他们向我介绍了 the team they showed me some of the hardware they were building these little 他们的团队向我展示了他们正在构建的一些硬件 mesh Wi-Fi boxes at the time and I was like wow this is really impressive like 当时的网状 Wi-Fi 盒子，我就想哇，这真是令人印象深刻，就像 00:19 00:19 how much money of you guys raised and they're like we don't raise any that's 你们筹集了多少钱，但他们好像我们没有筹集到任何资金 why we're talking to you right like and I was shocked because they had like 为什么我们要和你说话，我很震惊，因为他们有 hardware there they had they'd been selling these devices and they did it 他们在那里有硬件 他们一直在销售这些设备并且他们做到了 all by kind of like scraping together money here and there they got somehow a 就像到处凑钱一样，他们以某种方式得到了 deal on this and a deal on that and someone lent them money and they were 谈这个谈那个，有人借钱给他们，他们就被 able to string the whole thing together for $0 which is exactly what I like to 能够以 0 美元的价格将所有东西串在一起，这正是我喜欢的 see and so this is another one I like to think about as an example of like what 瞧，这是我喜欢思考的另一个例子 you want and then just kind of her laughs I'll give you what would be an 你想要然后只要她笑我就会给你什么 opposite of Meraki I would say is juice arrow like they spent a hundred million Meraki的对面我想说的是果汁箭头就像他们花了一个亿 dollars on their like juice bag squeezer without ever talking to a customer 无需与顾客交谈即可购买果汁袋挤压机 without ever trying to sell someone a bag of juice which by the way is what it 从来没有试图向某人推销一袋果汁，顺便说一句，这就是它的意思 is it's just a bag of juice and it squeezes it out 它只是一袋果汁然后把它挤出来吗 it's horrible right so you want the opposite of juice arrow you want Meraki 这太可怕了，所以你想要与你想要 Meraki 的果汁箭头相反的东西 00:20 00:20 and this was Cisco bought this for 1.2 billion which was like a seventy three 这是思科以 12 亿美元买下的，相当于 73 亿美元 extra turn once again they sold too early that company's worth ten twenty 再次额外轮流，他们太早卖掉了那家价值十二十分的公司 billion dollars now founders always sell too early because a billion dollars I 现在创始人总是卖得太早，因为我有十亿美元 make the same mistake I sell too early next up is cruise cruise I mentioned 犯同样的错误，我太早卖掉了，接下来是我提到的游轮游轮 earlier one of the founders of justin.tv Kyle vote started this company and my 早些时候，Justin.tv 的创始人之一凯尔投票创办了这家公司，我的 favorite Kyle story is actually from the early days of Justin TV where they came 最喜欢的凯尔故事实际上来自贾斯汀电视台的早期阶段 to me with this problem I had invested and then they came to me that with this 对我来说，我已经投资了这个问题，然后他们来找我，用这个 problem where they were burning up all of their money on streaming because it 问题是他们在流媒体上耗尽了所有的钱，因为它 turned out streaming video was very expensive they could either use the 结果发现流媒体视频非常昂贵，他们可以使用 streaming CD ends that were really expensive or they could like license 流媒体 CD 端非常昂贵，或者他们可能需要许可证 some kind of software to run their own streaming CDN but that was also really 某种软件来运行自己的流媒体 CDN，但这也确实是 expensive so they're like what should we 很贵所以他们就像我们应该做什么 00:21 00:21 do you know we're gonna burn all of your money which I don't like so I was like 你知道吗，我们会烧掉你所有的钱，我不喜欢，所以我就想 you know what this doesn't seem like a hard problem to me like bits go in bits 你知道吗，这对我来说似乎并不是一个难题，就像一点一滴一样 go out like what's the big deal you should just write your own streaming 出去吧，有什么大不了的，你应该写自己的流媒体 media server and Kyle you know it took me seriously I was like well okay I 媒体服务器和凯尔，你知道它很认真地对待我，我当时想，好吧，我 guess if you know PB says it's possible and actually I told him he should be 猜猜你是否知道 PB 说这是可能的，实际上我告诉他他应该这样做 able to do it in an evening I said you should you should just build this 一个晚上就可以完成我说你应该建造这个 tonight launch it tomorrow like I don't get what's so hard just make it work it 今晚明天启动它就像我不明白什么那么难只是让它发挥作用 turns out it took him maybe like a whole weekend but he did in fact write their 事实证明，他可能花了整个周末的时间，但事实上他确实写了他们的 own streaming media server and this is actually the reason that justin TV 拥有自己的流媒体服务器，这实际上就是 Justin TV 的原因 survived at all right because there was no way that the business was viable if 幸存下来是因为如果 they were paying so much for streaming and and so again it's a founder who's 他们为流媒体支付了如此多的费用，因此创始人又 willing to like do something that a more reasonable person would say is 愿意做一些更理性的人会说的事情 impossible like 99% of Engineers if I told them oh yeah you should replicate 如果我告诉 99% 的工程师，他们应该复制，那是不可能的 00:22 00:22 this other company's product and you should do it tonight okay 这是另一家公司的产品，你今晚应该做，好吗 it'd just be like you're an idiot like you don't know what you're talking about 就像你是个白痴一样你不知道自己在说什么 it would give me a big long list of reasons why it's and 它会给我一长串原因，并且 but instead he just did it and so the crews idea actually seemed four years 但他只是这么做了，所以工作人员的想法实际上似乎四年了 ago kind of in a similar boat now self-driving cars are really soft 以前在类似的船上现在自动驾驶汽车真的很软 wearing car startups are really hot but four years ago it actually seemed like 穿戴汽车初创公司确实很热门，但四年前它实际上看起来像 an absurd idea like the technology is so hard 像技术这么难这样荒唐的想法 Google has like a huge team working on it like there's no way like this is too 谷歌有一个庞大的团队正在研究它，就像不可能的那样 much for a little startup isn't there's no way it can work but of course it had 对于一家小初创公司来说，这并不是说它无法运作，但它当然可以 Kyle invest it anyway and as mentioned GM bought them for like a billion which 不管怎样，凯尔投资了它，正如前面提到的，通用汽车以大约十亿美元的价格购买了它们 was about a 50 extra turn not too bad again probably sold too early this 大约多了 50 回合，还不错，可能卖得太早了 company you may or may not have heard of they get a lot of press because it's 您可能听说过也可能没有听说过的公司他们受到了很多媒体的关注，因为它 00:23 00:23 awesome they came out of YC two years ago they're building supersonic jets in 太棒了，他们两年前从 YC 出来，他们正在建造超音速喷气机 10 years when you want to go to Tokyo you're gonna get there in like six hours 10年来，当你想去东京时，你只需六个小时就能到达那里 like that's pretty exciting and so this is another great example the founder 这非常令人兴奋，这是创始人的另一个很好的例子 Blake he's actually a software guy he doesn't know anything about he didn't he 布莱克，他实际上是一个软件人员，他对此一无所知，不是吗？ didn't have like an aeronautics background or anything he just became 没有航空背景或他刚刚成为的任何人 determined he's like you know it's the future we should have supersonic travel 确定他就像你知道的那样，这是我们应该拥有超音速旅行的未来 he's like I'm just gonna do it and so he took the time to just go teach himself 他好像我就要做，所以他花时间去自学 everything and figure out why like the Concorde it was such a huge failure and 一切并弄清楚为什么它像协和式飞机一样是一个巨大的失败 what was different now and what was so remarkable I remember when he was in YC 现在有什么不同，有什么让我记得他在 YC 时如此引人注目 is that he was able to very clearly explain to me why he was gonna do this 他能够非常清楚地向我解释他为什么要这样做 thing that seems really impossible but he could very clearly outlined to me 看起来确实不可能的事情，但他可以非常清楚地向我概述 00:24 00:24 essentially like the three things that were wrong with a Concorde that he was 本质上就像他驾驶的协和式飞机的三个问题一样 fixing the three the reasons that this was actually a viable business in like 解决这三个原因，这实际上是一个可行的业务 work through the economics of it all and he laid out a very clean picture and 他详细研究了这一切的经济学原理，描绘了一幅非常清晰的图景 again this is one of the traits of really great founders is they're able to 这又是真正伟大创始人的特质之一，他们能够 communicate what's a fairly complex idea I don't know anything about supersonic 传达一个相当复杂的想法 我对超音速一无所知 aircraft I'm not an expert supersonic aircraft right but he's able 飞机 我不是超音速飞机专家，但他可以 to explain this to me in a way that I understand very easily 以我很容易理解的方式向我解释这一点 he's got good insights and just absurd ambition just like really ambitious 他有很好的洞察力和荒谬的野心，就像真正的野心一样 something that again people would be like there's no way a start-up is gonna 人们会再次认为初创企业不可能这样做 build a supersonic airliner I believe they are you know it's not yet proven 建造一架超音速客机我相信它们是你知道的还没有被证明 but they're making amazing progress I always love to read their investor 但他们取得了惊人的进步 我总是喜欢读他们的投资者 updates he also sends the best investor updates of any company I've ever 他还发送了我见过的所有公司中最好的投资者更新 invested in and so the other point I want to make here actually is don't be 投资，所以我想在这里提出的另一点实际上是不要 afraid to invest in things that aren't software if you're if you're working 如果你在工作，就害怕投资软件以外的东西 00:25 00:25 according to this philosophy that like you want a really great founder and the 根据这种哲学，就像你想要一个真正伟大的创始人和 founder brings the expertise then you're able to invest in so much more and and 创始人带来了专业知识，那么你就可以投资更多，并且 we have so many great companies that are like in bio I think we're gonna have 我们有很多伟大的公司，就像生物领域一样，我想我们将会有 some just giant exits you know 10 years from now and and I see every time at 十年后你就会知道一些巨大的退出，而我每次都会看到 demo day cuz I work with a lot of the bio companies cuz I really like them I 演示日因为我与很多生物公司合作因为我真的很喜欢他们 see you know at least half the investors just like cross it off the list on 看看你认识至少一半的投资者，就像把它从名单上划掉一样 principle because like I don't know anything about supersonic aircraft so 原理因为我对超音速飞机一无所知所以 don't do that alright now as promised I will talk 现在别那么做，好吧，正如我所承诺的，我会谈谈 about some of the less flattering stories so in honor of the Dropbox IPO 关于一些不太讨人喜欢的故事，以纪念 Dropbox IPO let's talk about Dropbox so this email again for those who can't read it 我们来谈谈 Dropbox，所以为那些无法阅读的人再次发送这封电子邮件 there's me replying to Drew this is September 14th 2007 这是我在 2007 年 9 月 14 日回复 Drew 00:26 00:26 sorry I wasn't able to make it today are you gonna be around this weekend so I 抱歉，我今天没能来，这个周末你能来吗？ had actually gone to Boston to meet the summer 7 batch which was only like 19 实际上去波士顿参加了夏季第 7 批的比赛，当时只有 19 名 companies so it wasn't that hard drew seemed really good he was definitely you 公司所以并不是硬画看起来真的很好他绝对是你 know seemed like one of the strongest and best founders in the batch but you 知道似乎是这批创始人中最强大、最好的创始人之一，但你 know I had some questions about competition like what are you gonna do 我知道我有一些关于竞争的问题，比如你要做什么 about Google Drive and all that so I set 关于 Google Drive 以及我设置的所有内容 up a meeting to meet with him when we're back in San Francisco and then on the 当我们回到旧金山时，安排一个会面与他见面，然后 day of the meeting my previous meeting ran long and I 会议当天 我上次的会议持续了很长时间，而且我 cancelled I'm drew and I want to make a couple of points here one is that that's 取消 我被吸引了，我想在这里提出几点，其中之一是 really shitty investor behavior because you're wasting the founders time don't 投资者的行为真的很糟糕，因为你在浪费创始人的时间。 do that and to convert karma kind of got me back I missed out on what would have 这样做并转换业力让我回来，我错过了将会发生的事情 been like a thousand extra turn and an exciting IPO because I didn't show up 因为我没有出现，所以就像多了一千次回合和一次令人兴奋的首次公开募股 00:27 00:27 alright so I missed Airbnb I mean a Dropbox but what about Airbnb so here's 好吧，所以我错过了 Airbnb，我的意思是 Dropbox，但是 Airbnb 怎么样，所以这里是 a Michael Seibel introducing me this was June 26 2008 to to this company air bed Michael Seibel 于 2008 年 6 月 26 日向我介绍了这家公司的气垫床 and breakfast and then just sort of like humorously four years later something 和早餐，然后有点像四年后幽默的事情 three years later I respond I should have responded the thing that actually 三年后我回应我应该回应实际上的事情 triggered this was that the Airbnb founders were like standing right here 触发这一点的是 Airbnb 创始人就像站在这里 telling their story and I was like ah this hurts so much I can't believe I 讲述他们的故事，我就像啊，这太痛苦了，我不敢相信我 like missed this company in my defense I had my own startup at the time and I 就像错过了这家公司一样，我当时有自己的初创公司，而且我 think if you are a start-up founder you need to give your own company absolute 我认为如果你是一家初创公司的创始人，你需要给自己的公司绝对的权力 priority over angel investing the thing that actually makes is more painful is 优先于天使投资实际上更痛苦的是 that this was just the first time this was before they are in YC once they're 这只是他们第一次来 YC 之前 in YC pgu is like oh you got to talk to the air being these they're so good 在 YC pgu 就像哦，你必须与空气交谈，因为这些他们太棒了 00:28 00:28 they're like the best company he was just constantly hyping them and 他们就像是他不断炒作的最好的公司 generally if PG gives that strong of an endorsement just 一般来说，如果 PG 给予那么强烈的认可， like you just invest I'm like cool you know I'll invest I'll you know I'll 就像你只是投资我很酷你知道我会投资我会你知道我会 watch for them on angel day which is what you used to call demo day now I 在天使日留意他们，这就是你以前所说的演示日，现在我 show up on angel day and there's no airBnB 在天使日出现，但没有爱彼迎 so I email Brian I'm like hey misty guys today was you know hoping to chat and 所以我给布莱恩发了邮件，我想嘿，今天的迷雾小伙子们，你们知道希望能聊天吗？ invest he's like yeah sorry we just signed a term sheet with Sequoia so 投资他就像是的，抱歉我们刚刚与红杉签署了一份投资意向书，所以 again I had basically in my head decided to invest but then just kind of was 我再次基本上决定投资，但后来就有点了 lacks today cycle and and and and took some time fortunately I was able to get 今天缺乏周期和和并花了一些时间幸运的是我能够得到 into a later round but at a much higher price but again the point I want to make 进入后一轮，但价格要高得多，但我想再次强调这一点 here is that if you move slow you're going to get adverse 如果你行动缓慢，你就会遇到不利的情况 selection like the companies that you can string along for months you know 选择您可以连续几个月了解的公司 give a hundred different meetings and like you need to talk to this person 举行一百次不同的会议，就像你需要和这个人交谈一样 00:29 00:29 probably aren't going to be the best companies so like be very deliberate in 可能不会成为最好的公司，所以要非常慎重 your decision-making like do or do not write don't just be like yeah you know 你的决定，比如做或不写，不要只是像是的，你知道 I'll see what happens like when you identify a company is being really 我会看看当你发现一家公司真的在做生意时会发生什么 promising as something you want to invest in you could spend like another 承诺作为您想要投资的东西，您可以像其他东西一样花钱 week thinking about it or you could pull the trigger and get Airbnb all right 一周考虑一下，或者你可以扣动扳机，让 Airbnb 一切顺利 what else doesn't work ah a really good price 还有什么不行啊，价格真的很好 this one I've been duped into a bunch where I'm like oh it's such a you know 我被骗到了一堆，我想哦，这就是你知道的 they're giving me a bargain like I'm Tremp today a bargain like all the 他们给了我一个讨价还价的机会，就像我今天是特伦普一样 valuations so low it's a steal like I'm gonna I'm getting a great deal 估值如此之低，就像我要得到一笔划算的交易一样 I've never gotten any return that's something that I invested in because it 我投资的东西从来没有得到任何回报，因为它 was a good deal they're really literally 很划算，他们确实是真的 is no such thing as a value investing in startups as as much as it seems like 对初创公司的价值投资并不像看上去那么重要 00:30 00:30 there should be a every time I've done this it's been a mistake 每次我这样做都应该是一个错误 another mistake not investing because of price and clearly there must be some 另一个错误是因为价格而没有投资，显然一定有一些 limit at which this isn't true but I've never encountered it anytime I've been 这是不正确的极限，但我从来没有遇到过它 like excited about something but then there's like ah the price is so high 就像对某件事感到兴奋，但价格却如此之高 yeah you know I'll invest in something else I've always regretted it like so 是的，你知道我会投资其他东西，我一直很后悔 now actually in my head I kind of turn around the rule I'm like if I'm 现在实际上在我的脑海里我有点扭转规则我就像如果我 disappointed by their price I should probably invest more I need to write a 对他们的价格感到失望我可能应该投资更多我需要写一篇 larger check this one is probably kind of obvious I make this mistake a lot 更大的检查这个可能有点明显我经常犯这个错误 because I work with the founders I get emotionally attached and I just want to 因为我与创始人一起工作，所以我产生了情感上的依恋，我只想 help them out they seem helpless if you're investing out of pity but is 帮助他们，如果你出于怜悯而投资，他们看起来很无助，但实际上 00:31 00:31 also have never made any money always turned up at because again like the 也从来没有赚过钱总是出现在因为再次喜欢 really great founders just are so formidable you know someone like like 真正伟大的创始人是如此强大，你认识这样的人 Blake get boom it's just sort of like a force of nature like he's somehow just 布莱克得到了繁荣，这有点像自然的力量，就像他不知何故只是 gonna will this thing into existence the people who come to me with like a sob 那些带着抽泣来找我的人将会把这件事变成现实 story oh no one wants to invest maybe if you write a check they will like no I 故事哦，没有人愿意投资，也许如果你写一张支票，他们会不喜欢我 haven't made anything so I'm gonna try to keep myself for making this mistake 我什么也没做所以我会努力让自己不犯这个错误 I'll probably do it a little bit more cynical ideas this one is something 我可能会做一些更加愤世嫉俗的想法，这是一件事情 where I'm actually not really that excited about what they're doing and 事实上我对他们正在做的事情并不那么兴奋 what it means for the future but it seems like it could make a lot of money 这对未来意味着什么，但似乎可以赚很多钱 and so you know if they can make a lot of money I'd like some of it so far so 所以你知道他们是否能赚很多钱，到目前为止我想要其中一些 far and I'm kind of actually happy about this I've never made money on these 到目前为止，我对此感到非常高兴，我从未在这些上赚过钱 companies somehow the cynical idea is I don't know why but they haven't they 公司某种程度上愤世嫉俗的想法是我不知道为什么但他们没有 haven't worked out for me maybe I have the wrong kind of cynicism 对我来说没有成功 也许我有错误的愤世嫉俗 00:32 00:32 but the principle here I would suggest is invest in optimism invest in the 但我建议的原则是投资乐观主义 future you want to see not the future you fear and these are basically ideas 你想看到的未来不是你害怕的未来，这些基本上都是想法 where I invested in the future I fear I had this one idea at one point that I 我对未来的投资 我担心我曾经有过这样一个想法 should just invest in anything that would not be out of place in the movie 应该只投资于电影中不会不合适的任何东西 idiocracy fortunately those investments didn't work all right another mistake 白痴幸运的是这些投资没有发挥作用又是一个错误 really impressive numbers I think Sam touched on this yesterday it's really 非常令人印象深刻的数字，我认为 Sam 昨天谈到了这一点，这真的是 easy to get excited and good numbers on their own are not a bad thing obviously 很容易兴奋，而且好的数字本身显然并不是一件坏事 sometimes really good companies have really good numbers but the thing that 有时真正优秀的公司拥有非常好的数字，但是 happens is you kind of get blinded by the numbers you're like wow it just 发生的是你有点被数字蒙蔽了，你就像哇，只是 keeps going up ignore the fact that like somehow the founders are kind of a or 不断上涨，忽略了这样一个事实：创始人有点像或 like the product doesn't really make sense to me and again I never made money 就像这个产品对我来说真的没有意义，而且我又没赚到钱 00:33 00:33 on these if I'm just investing because of the numbers it turns out to be a bad 如果我只是因为数字而投资的话，结果会很糟糕 investment and I think the reason for this that the question to ask is is this 投资，我认为要问的原因是这样的 company actually creating value like are they actually making the world a 公司实际上创造了价值，就像他们实际上让世界成为一个 wealthier place or are they maybe just exploiting some temporary inefficiency 更富裕的地方，或者他们可能只是利用一些暂时的低效率 in like Facebook Facebook's going to change their album algorithm and that 就像 Facebook Facebook 将改变他们的相册算法 companies there be dead right all right so I've tried to boil that all down 那里的公司已经死了，好吧，所以我试图把这一切归结为 again just more for my own use to a checklist because again my my thinking 再次只是为了我自己使用清单，因为我的想法 on startups is that it's really like the founders are absolutely critical and 对初创公司来说，创始人确实是绝对挑剔的 everything else kind of derives from that so if I'm just asking myself like 其他一切都源于此，所以如果我只是问自己 is this person a great founder here's some of the traits clear concise 这个人是一位伟大的创始人吗？这里有一些特征，清晰简洁 00:34 00:34 communication and I want to be clear this doesn't mean slick salesy kind of 沟通，我想澄清这并不意味着圆滑的销售 communication I mean people who can demonstrate a real depth of 沟通 我指的是能够表现出真正深度沟通的人 understanding and clarity of thought in the example actually probably one of the 示例中思想的理解和清晰度实际上可能是其中之一 best examples of this is just Paul Graham with Y Combinator like the whole 最好的例子就是 Paul Graham 和 Y Combinator 的整体 reason why Combinator really exists is because he'd been writing these essays Combinator 真正存在的原因是因为他一直在写这些文章 for years that we're sort of like he's kind of like the Pied Piper of nerds 多年来我们都觉得他有点像书呆子里的花衣魔笛手 like everyone would just read these things and get excited and that was in 就像每个人都会读到这些东西并感到兴奋，那就是 to this day I believe it's like the number one or number two source of leads 直到今天，我相信它就像是第一或第二的潜在客户来源 to people applying to Y Combinator we asked a question on the application how 对于申请 Y Combinator 的人，我们问了一个关于申请的问题： did you hear about Y Combinator and they say from Paul Graham's essays but also 你听说过 Y Combinator吗？他们从 Paul Graham 的文章中说，而且 you know essentially all of the other founders fall into this category right 你知道基本上所有其他创始人都属于这一类，对吧 like Kyle was able to tell me a story about how he's gonna make a self-driving 就像凯尔能够告诉我一个关于他如何制作自动驾驶汽车的故事 car boom again he's able to tell me the story about how they're gonna do this 汽车再次繁荣，他能够告诉我他们将如何做到这一点的故事 00:35 00:35 impossible thing and so if people if I find myself struggling to understand or 不可能的事情，所以如果人们发现自己很难理解或 like doing the work for them it's always 就像为他们做事一样 a bad time and it's the trap I sometimes fall into is all talk to them for so 一段糟糕的时光，这是我有时会陷入的陷阱，就是与他们交谈 long I'll come up with a story that makes sense and then I'll just sell 很长一段时间我都会想出一个有意义的故事然后我就会卖掉 myself on my own story you know I think maybe I'm just not smart enough but no 我自己讲述我自己的故事，你知道，我想也许我只是不够聪明，但不 if they're a good founder they're gonna be able to communicate to me moves fast 如果他们是一位优秀的创始人，他们将能够与我快速沟通 again like think of Brett rewriting maps in a weekend or Kyle making a media 再次像布雷特在周末重写地图或凯尔制作媒体一样 server or you know the Meraki team building building that product with no 服务器或者您知道 Meraki 团队在构建该产品时无需 money moving fast is absolutely critical and again it's something that I think 资金的快速流动绝对是至关重要的，我也认为这一点 most people don't do it's really easy to 大多数人不这样做，但这很容易 come up with the reasons why this should 提出为什么应该这样做的原因 take longer or you know I really want to 需要更长的时间或者你知道我真的很想 get this thing right or that thing right 把这件事做好或那件事做好 like founders will come up with infinite reasons to move slow and that's fine I 就像创始人会想出无数理由缓慢行动一样，这很好我 00:36 00:36 just not going to invest accomplishes a lot with a little 只是不打算投资就能用一点点成就很多事 and so again like Meraki is the great example of this no money in there 所以，Meraki 就是一个很好的例子，说明里面没有钱 shipping Hardware somehow juice arrow is the anti story of that most most 运输硬件不知何故果汁箭头是最最的反故事 startups unfortunately accomplish very little with a lot implausibly ambitious 不幸的是，初创公司雄心勃勃却收效甚微 or frivolous ideas and the reason that we're kind of at these two extremes is 或无聊的想法，而我们处于这两个极端的原因是 that if the idea is in the middle as I mentioned it at the start probably 如果这个想法是在中间，正如我一开始提到的那样 there's like a big company somewhere working on it or a hundred other 就像有一家大公司或其他一百家公司正在研究它 startups and so you want to see something that's either it sounds 初创公司，所以你想看到一些听起来像的东西 impossible like you know a supersonic jet or just straight-up stupid like 不可能，就像你知道超音速喷气式飞机一样，或者只是简单的愚蠢的事情 putting a camera on Justin's head right things that seem like toys actually 把相机放在贾斯汀的头上，对那些看起来像玩具的东西 Aaron Harris had a good blog post about this I think last week you should you 亚伦·哈里斯 (Aaron Harris) 有一篇关于此的很好的博客文章，我认为上周您应该 should look up on the YC blog ideas that look like toys are oftentimes really 应该看看 YC 博客上的想法，那些看起来像玩具的想法往往是真的 00:37 00:37 great and the founders have the conviction to pursue these obviously bad 伟大而创始人有信念去追求这些明显不好的 ideas is a talent magnet so the best people want to work with the best people 创意就像一块人才磁铁，所以最优秀的人希望与最优秀的人一起工作 and somehow the really great founders seem to be able to attract other great 不知何故，真正伟大的创始人似乎能够吸引其他伟大的创始人 people and actually YC this is I think really the secret of YC is that it's 人们，实际上 YC，我认为 YC 的真正秘密在于它 just a giant top talent magnet like we could bring them in and do almost 只是一个巨大的顶尖人才磁铁，就像我们可以把他们带进来并做几乎 anything I think it was still sort of work the key thing is that we're 我认为这仍然是一项工作，关键是我们 attracting the best people and the best people want to come be a part of a Y 吸引最优秀的人才，最优秀的人才希望成为 Y 的一部分 Combinator because this is where all the 组合器，因为这是所有 other best people are and so this and we see this with a lot of our top startups 其他最优秀的人都是如此，我们在许多顶级初创公司中都看到了这一点 like stripe you know really brilliant founders and then their team is also 就像条纹一样，你知道非常出色的创始人，然后他们的团队也是 really impressive make something people want this is this is key this is our 真的令人印象深刻，做一些人们想要的东西，这是关键，这是我们的 slogan make something people a lot Google is a great example like I 口号让很多人喜欢谷歌是一个很好的例子，就像我一样 00:38 00:38 actually was using the product if it's if they're building a thing that you 实际上正在使用该产品，如果他们正在构建您想要的东西 actually want that's a good sign if you can't identify anyone in the world who 实际上希望这是一个好兆头，如果你无法识别世界上的任何人 would possibly want the thing that they're making anyone who's who if you 可能会想要他们正在制作的任何人的东西，如果你 offer it to them they'll be like no thank you 提供给他们，他们会拒绝，谢谢 that's that's a bad sign I was gonna say 我想说那是一个坏兆头 something else about that but I remember oh right 还有其他事情，但我记得哦，对了 like actually another funny story here is door - which you may have seen in the 实际上，另一个有趣的故事是门——你可能已经在 news they just raised another half-billion when they interviewed here 消息称他们在这里接受采访时刚刚筹集了另外五亿美元 like actually in the room right over there I like one question for them was 就像实际上在那边的房间里一样，我想问他们一个问题是 like will you deliver to my house because at the time when they went 就像你会送货到我家一样，因为他们去的时候 through I see there is no food delivery where I live and I get hungry and so 通过我看到我住的地方没有送餐服务，我很饿，所以 they're like yes there's like you're funded so I I mainly funded that company 他们说是的，就像你得到了资助，所以我主要资助了那家公司 just because I wanted food for myself but you know they're doing good and 只是因为我想要自己吃东西，但你知道他们做得很好 00:39 00:39 finally determined and committed and in fact peih-gee says determined is the 最终下定决心并承诺，事实上，佩吉说决心就是 number one most important trait in a start-up founder and the reason for this 初创企业创始人最重要的特质及其原因 is because starting a start-up is really 是因为创业确实是 really really hard and unpleasant and so if you're not super determined you'll 真的真的很难而且不愉快，所以如果你不是非常有决心，你就会 probably give up at some point you'll be like why am I putting myself through 可能会在某个时候放弃，你会想为什么我要让自己经历这样的磨难 hell I should just go get a job at Google and be like a normal person 天哪，我应该去谷歌找一份工作，像个正常人一样 unfortunately I think like this can sometimes be a little bit hard to suss 不幸的是，我认为这样有时会有点难以怀疑 out because the founders will of course be like oh yeah I'm totally committed 因为创始人当然会说，哦，是的，我完全承诺 but some of the things you can look for is are they hedging their bets like do 但你可以寻找的一些事情是他们是否像这样做一样对冲他们的赌注 they have kind of it's easy Plan B and actually the group of founders where 他们有一种很简单的 B 计划，实际上创始人团队 I've seen this happen them most is founders who are on leave from 我见过这种情况发生最多的是那些正在休假的创始人 med school doctors who realize they didn't really want to be a doctor so 医学院的医生意识到他们并不是真的想成为一名医生，所以 they're like I'll try out the startup thing and so they come in here they'll 他们就像我会尝试创业一样，所以他们来到这里他们会 00:40 00:40 work for six months or whatever in the big man this is hard I'm scared I'm 工作六个月或者其他什么大人物这很难我害怕我 gonna go back to medical school right like they have that easy out they've 会回到医学院，就像他们轻松地离开一样 already made a huge investment in in being a doctor and they don't want to 已经为成为一名医生投入了巨额投资，但他们不想这样做 throw that all away for some pipe dream startup and I think the other thing that 为了一些白日梦的创业公司而把这一切都扔掉，我认为另一件事是 I like to look at is have the people made mistakes in their life I'm very 我喜欢看人们在生活中犯过错误，我非常喜欢 nervous about people who've always gotten perfect grades they got into all 对那些总是在所有科目中取得完美成绩的人感到紧张 the right things they did all the right clubs the people who have the perfect 他们做了正确的事情 所有正确的俱乐部 拥有完美的人 resume the people who didn't up because these are people who've never 恢复那些没有上来的人，因为这些人从来没有上来过 failed and startup founder being a star founder you're basically failing day 失败了，初创公司创始人成为明星创始人，你基本上是失败的一天 after day and so what these people do you know they're these are people who 一天过去了，这些人你知道什么？他们是这样的人 00:41 00:41 are scared of failure and so they almost inevitably will take just like an early 害怕失败，所以他们几乎不可避免地会像早期的失败一样 exit and then they can put on their resume oh you know started a YC startup 退出，然后他们就可以把简历贴上哦，你知道，他们创办了一家 YC 初创公司 and sold it to some other company right it doesn't say that they sold it for 并把它卖给了其他一些公司，但并没有说他们卖了它 like zero dollars or whatever but they can add it to their resume and they can 比如零美元或其他什么，但他们可以将其添加到他们的简历中，他们可以 go get a safe job at McKinsey or something all right so that is it thank you 去麦肯锡找一份安全的工作或者其他什么都好，就这样了，谢谢 [Applause] so the question is with respect to [鼓掌]所以问题是关于 making things people want how does how do you evaluate that for like bio 创造人们想要的东西，你如何评价它，比如生物 companies and things like that you know actually I find most of the time with 事实上，我发现大多数时间都与公司和类似的事情有关 those companies it's pretty obvious like you're making a cure for cancer 那些公司很明显就像你正在治疗癌症 I want a cure for cancer right the the risk on those companies is most often 我想要治愈癌症，因为这些公司面临的风险最常见 00:42 00:42 not market risk it's it's not the risk that no one wants a cure for cancer the 不是市场风险，不是没有人想要治愈癌症的风险 risk is that they don't you don't actually have a cure for cancer 风险在于他们不这样做，你实际上并没有治愈癌症的方法 right so with those companies more often it's one of these things where like the 是的，所以对于这些公司来说，通常是这样的事情之一 demand is kind of obvious it's just like a question of whether you can actually 需求是显而易见的，这就像一个问题：你是否真的可以 create the product I have a question right just wondering I know Justin I 创建产品我有一个问题只是想知道我认识贾斯汀我 know Michael I know I'm it I know Kyle what is it about those guys that made 认识迈克尔，我知道我就是我，我认识凯尔，那些创造了一切的人到底是怎么回事？ you invest because I mean that was you didn't really say it but you have you 你投资是因为我的意思是你并没有真正这么说，但你有你 heard this incredibly stupid idea and yet you invested in this know talented 听到这个令人难以置信的愚蠢想法，但你投资了这个知道有才华的人 group of four people why I mean I think they did have talent 四人组 为什么我的意思是我认为他们确实有才华 III think they told a very simple story actually there's a good question they 我认为他们讲了一个非常简单的故事，实际上他们有一个很好的问题 they told a story that really connected with me which is we're gonna stick a 他们讲述了一个与我真正相关的故事，那就是我们要坚持 camera on our head on Justin's head and then stream it and see what happens and 将摄像头放在我们的头上，放在贾斯汀的头上，然后进行流式传输，看看会发生什么 that's the kind of thing I love because I'm like I don't know what's gonna 这就是我喜欢的事情，因为我不知道会发生什么 00:43 00:43 happen right it's really unpredictable but again the thing that I liked was 发生的对，这确实是不可预测的，但我再次喜欢的事情是 that they weren't gonna go off and spend 他们不会去花钱 a lot of time like thinking about it and like making complex plans they were 很多时候他们喜欢思考并制定复杂的计划 literally just gonna do it they bought a camera stuck it on Justin's head and 他们买了一台相机，把它贴在贾斯汀的头上， like hacked together some of it so that they could stream it so they were gonna 就像把其中一些拼凑在一起，这样他们就可以流式传输，这样他们就可以 be able to test the idea very quickly and learn and iterate and again this is 能够非常快速地测试这个想法并学习和迭代，这就是 part of why the you know on the checklist here moves fast is super 您知道这里清单上的内容移动速度如此之快的部分原因是超级 important like you can almost defy a predict the I think success of a startup 很重要，就像你几乎无法预测我认为初创公司的成功一样 just based on how quickly they're able to iterate and the really great 只是基于他们迭代的速度和真正的伟大 companies just like iterate really quickly the ones who you know 公司只是喜欢快速迭代你认识的人 00:44 00:44 do a release every two years fail juice arrow sure so so the question is unlike 每两年发布一次失败果汁箭头肯定所以所以问题不像 private equity where you can do months and months of diligence like we kind of 私募股权投资公司，您可以像我们一样进行数月的尽职调查 have to move fast as investors or as I mentioned face adverse selection of not 必须快速行动，因为投资者或正如我提到的，面临逆向选择 funding Airbnb so how do we how do we know if the founders move fast I think 为 Airbnb 提供资金 那么我们如何知道创始人是否行动迅速 我认为 is what you're saying as well as all of these other things in what you can do is 就是你所说的以及你能做的所有其他事情 00:45 00:45 you can actually ask them like what have you done what have you accomplished in 你实际上可以问他们，比如你做了什么，你在哪些方面取得了成就 the past month right what what what there's actually a 过去一个月对什么什么实际上有什么 really good blog post you should all go find where it says a little bit of slope 非常好的博客文章，你们都应该去找到它说有点坡度的地方 is worth a lot of y-intercept I think is the title and the basically the idea is 值得大量的 y 截距，我认为是标题，基本上的想法是 you can have something up here you know millions of dollars in revenue but it's 你可以在这里拥有一些你知道收入数百万美元的东西，但它是 kind of flatlined or you can have this little toy down here with like almost 有点扁平，或者你可以把这个小玩具放在这里，就像几乎一样 nothing but it has an upward slope and you'll want to invest in the thing with 什么都没有，但它有一个向上的斜率，你会想投资于这个东西 slope and so this is what we look for in founders and companies is just like how 斜率，所以这就是我们在创始人和公司中寻找的东西，就像 quickly are they moving forward how soon 他们进展得快吗 多久 are they going to do something right and so like the example of justin.tv it 他们会做一些正确的事情吗？就像 justin.tv 的例子一样 wasn't like we're gonna launch this thing next year it was like we're gonna 并不是我们要在明年推出这个东西，而是我们要 launch this thing next week right and so and so just talking to them about their 下周就推出这个东西，某某只是和他们谈论他们的事情 schedule what they've done in the past and what you know what their anticipated 安排他们过去做过的事情以及你所知道的他们的预期 00:46 00:46 future schedule is and I want and actually asking them like okay why 未来的时间表是，我想要，实际上问他们，好吧，为什么 aren't you doing this thing faster and seeing if they give me you know just 你不是更快地做这件事吗？看看他们是否给我你知道的 kind of like excuses or if they're maybe is a legitimate reason for not moving 有点像借口，或者如果它们是不搬家的合理理由 fast and you know you can also try pushing the founders you know probably 快，你知道你也可以尝试推动你可能认识的创始人 more so after you you fund them pushing them to move even faster and see how 更重要的是，当你资助他们之后，他们就会加快步伐，看看如何 they respond and you know like my story with Kyle I gave him what was maybe an 他们回应了，你知道，就像我和凯尔的故事一样，我给了他一个可能是 unreasonable thing like you should rewrite some other company's product and 像你应该重写其他公司的产品这样不合理的事情 an evening but he took it and ran with it right he didn't just like I've worked 一个晚上，但他接受了它，然后就跑了，他不喜欢我工作过 with a lot of Engineers 99% of Engineers would just like tell me I'm smoking 有很多工程师 99% 的工程师只想告诉我我在吸烟 crack and like don't know what I'm talking about right but he just like 破解，就像不知道我在说什么，但他只是喜欢 took it and ran with it right so here at YC we actually fund the companies based 接受并正确执行，因此在 YC，我们实际上为这些公司提供资金 on a ten minute interview right so it is possible to get 在十分钟的采访中，这样就有可能得到 it's amazing how much you can get out of people in ten minutes and actually this 令人惊奇的是，你可以在十分钟内从人们那里得到很多东西，实际上这是 is again why I put for me number one on the list is clear concise communication 这也是为什么我把清晰简洁的沟通放在清单上的第一名 00:47 00:47 if I spend 10 minutes interviewing a company and I still don't know what they 如果我花 10 分钟面试一家公司，但我仍然不知道他们做什么 do that's an easy no like it's so easy to say no to that right like like if 做这件事很容易说“不”，就像对那个权利说“不”很容易，就像“如果”一样 they can't if they can't tell me what it is and that's that's probably like you 如果他们不能告诉我那是什么，他们就不能，那可能就像你一样 know at least a third of the companies that come in here to interview at the 至少认识三分之一来这里面试的公司 end of the interview we still don't know what they're doing and so we don't fund 采访结束时我们仍然不知道他们在做什么，所以我们不资助 them so the question is did I make any mistakes with respect to the 所以问题是我在这方面犯了任何错误吗 fundamentals of the startup I mean okay the thing you have to remember is that 初创公司的基本原理我的意思是好吧，你必须记住的是 00:48 00:48 most of your investments aren't going to work out and it's it's easy to spend a 你的大部分投资都不会成功，而且很容易花掉 lot of time kind of making up complex theories but what I find is the danger 很多时间都在编造复杂的理论，但我发现这是危险的 when I see investors who do that is they come up with clever ways of talking 当我看到这样做的投资者时，他们想出了聪明的谈话方式 themselves out of good deals because like you know justin.tv if I give him 他们自己就没有好交易了，因为就像你知道的 justin.tv 如果我给他 that like five minutes of thought I could have come up with you know a 大约五分钟的思考我就能想出你知道的 hundred reasons why it wasn't going to work right so yeah did the companies 它无法正常工作的一百个原因，公司也是如此 fail for fundamental reasons of course and you sometimes you never even know 当然，失败是出于根本原因，有时你甚至不知道 right like suppose justin.tv had managed to actually do a talent acquisition 就像假设 justin.tv 已经成功地进行了人才收购一样 someone thought they had talent they wouldn't be up on the slide right it's 有人认为自己有才华，但他们不会出现在幻灯片上，对吧？ kind of random you know some some random 有点随机 你知道一些 一些随机 person at Google flip the bit one way or the other and I got a completely 谷歌的人以一种或另一种方式翻转了一点，我完全得到了一个 different outcome but if I were to then look back on that let's say it wasn't a 不同的结果，但如果我回顾一下，可以说这不是一个 00:49 00:49 favorable outcome and then try to draw like deep conclusions about you know why 有利的结果，然后尝试得出关于你知道为什么的深刻结论 I should never again invest in like a streaming video company or something 我永远不应该再投资像流媒体视频公司之类的东西 like that I might miss out on something really 这样我可能会真的错过一些东西 good so one of my other principles is don't over learn from past mistakes and 很好，所以我的其他原则之一是不要从过去的错误中过度学习 it's really easy because it hurts it hurts so much to lose money like it 这真的很容易，因为它很痛苦，像这样赔钱真的很痛苦 hurts me at least that that you want to avoid it but if you're going to be able 至少让我受伤的是你想避免它，但如果你能够的话 to do this you kind of just have to bite the bullet and recognize that 要做到这一点，你只需要硬着头皮并认识到这一点 fundamentally investing that seed stage involves and I started with this a great 从根本上投资种子阶段涉及的事情，我从这开始了一个伟大的投资 00:50 00:50 deal of locking so the question is when I look at ICS do 锁定的交易，所以问题是当我查看 ICS 时会做什么 I see that as the open source of funding or the G sera funding it's a good 我认为作为开源资金或 G sera 资金这是一个很好的选择 question I'm trying to figure out figure out how do I like politely answer I 我想弄清楚我该如何礼貌地回答这个问题 think there's something really interesting going on in crypto so crypto 认为加密货币领域正在发生一些非常有趣的事情，所以加密货币 is another one of these things like I gave Linux as an example where the thing 是其中的另一件事，就像我以 Linux 为例，其中的事情 that brought me to Google was my enthusiasm for Linux and I think if you 我对 Linux 的热情把我带到了 Google，我想如果你 were paying attention to what like nerdy 正在关注书呆子之类的东西 21 year olds were excited about five six years ago you would have invested in 21 岁的人对 5 六年前你会投资的项目感到兴奋 coinbase and Bitcoin and all that stuff that said as far as I can tell the vast 据我所知，coinbase 和比特币以及所有这些内容 majority of the ICS are scams or or just like these are companies that if they 大多数 ICS 都是骗局，或者就像这些公司一样，如果他们 were trying to raise from the people in the room here maybe they'd be able to 我们试图从这里的人那里筹集资金也许他们能够 00:51 00:51 raise half a million dollars but instead they go do an ICO and they race let's 筹集了 50 万美元，但他们却进行了 ICO，然后他们开始比赛 say a hundred million dollars no way no way those are all going to zero 说一亿美元不行不行这些都会归零 I don't believe any of those are gonna are gonna work and part of the reason 我不相信这些都会起作用，这是部分原因 for that - is this counterintuitive thing that I've learned working with a 为此 - 这是我在与一个人一起工作时学到的违反直觉的事情吗？ lot of startups is that actually too much money is a huge liability because 很多初创公司的观点是，太多的钱实际上是一种巨大的负债，因为 when you have a lot of money you start doing things the right way and that's 当你有很多钱时，你就会开始以正确的方式做事，那就是 actually kind of what happened with juice arrow as an example is they got 实际上，以果汁箭头为例，他们得到了 you know a hundred and whatever a million dollars if that company only had 你知道一百甚至一百万美元，如果那家公司只有 a hundred K they would have had to go try to sell juice bags they wouldn't 一百千，他们将不得不去尝试销售他们不会的果汁袋 have been able to spend years building this stupid machine right they would 已经能够花费数年时间建造这台愚蠢的机器了 have had Ted had to actually talk to customers and so having a giant mountain 泰德必须与顾客真正交谈，因此有一座巨大的山 of money enables the founders to insulate themselves from reality to an 金钱使创始人能够将自己与现实隔离开来 00:52 00:52 unhealthy extent just a couple of questions from cyberspace or in this 不健康的程度只是来自网络空间或在此的几个问题 room and they're just too shy to speak it out one was directly to me but I 他们只是太害羞而不敢说出来，其中一个是直接对我说的，但我 think it's an interesting question which is people tend to be nerve 认为这是一个有趣的问题，人们往往会感到紧张 some sort of deep deep technology companies investors especially how does 某种深度科技公司的投资者尤其是如何 how do you get over that and how do people in general get over not being 你如何克服这个问题以及一般人如何克服不存在的问题 afraid of some sort of hardtack I mean I 害怕某种硬饼干我的意思是我 guess I also just like tend to invest in things that I'm excited about and it's 我想我也喜欢投资那些让我兴奋的事情 so much easier for me to get excited about a supersonic jet and then some 对我来说更容易对超音速喷气机感到兴奋，然后一些 sort of like obscure enterprise software or something like that and not that an 有点像晦涩的企业软件或类似的东西，而不是一个 enterprise software is a bad investment but I don't know for me it's not really 企业软件是一项糟糕的投资，但我不知道对我来说是否真的如此 that hard because I sort of accept accept the fact that I actually don't 很难，因为我有点接受我实际上不接受的事实 know very much about almost anything so it's not just the hard tech companies 对几乎所有事情都非常了解，因此不仅仅是硬科技公司 00:53 00:53 like I don't know anything about almost any of what the company is doing that's 就像我对公司正在做的事情几乎一无所知 why I have to invest in people who are better than me right and so it really 为什么我必须投资于比我更好的人，所以这确实是 just comes down to like do I believe in this founder and and their expertise and 归根结底就是我是否相信这位创始人和他们的专业知识以及 then therefore I can just rely I can like outsource my thinking to the 那么我可以信赖我可以将我的想法外包给 founder I don't think you answer this but if you're an hour meeting and I had 创始人，我认为你不会回答这个问题，但如果你开了一个小时的会议，而我 a startup and you were trying to determine whether I was determined how 一家初创公司，你试图确定我是否决定如何 would you do that actually to talk about this a little bit 你会这样做实际上是为了稍微讨论一下这个问题吗 but I you know a lot of is kind of probing for you know do they have any 但我知道很多都是一种试探，因为你知道他们有什么 plan B right are they gonna go back to medical school have they quit their job B计划是对的，如果他们辞掉工作，他们会回到医学院吗？ yet do they still have a job at some other company like and we get this a lot 但他们在其他公司还有工作吗，比如我们经常遇到这种情况 of times where we'll ask founders are you going to leave your job and they're 很多时候我们会问创始人你是否要离职，而他们却 say well if I raise enough money that I can pay myself XYZ like they have these 好吧，如果我筹集到足够的钱，我可以像他们有这些一样支付给自己 XYZ 00:54 00:54 conditions on it and ideally you want the people who are just willing to 条件，理想情况下你想要的是那些愿意的人 charge straight into a brick wall that's necessary I think this is really deep 直接冲进砖墙，这是必要的我认为这真的很深 Paul Graham says this is the most important quality of a founder you 保罗·格雷厄姆说这是创始人最重要的品质 should look for but it's extraordinarily difficult to know when someone has it 应该寻找，但很难知道某人何时拥有它 one of the reasons by the way we ask questions on the YC application about 顺便说一句，我们在 YC 申请中提出以下问题的原因之一： your past because that is one way I try to determine if someone's to term 你的过去，因为这是我尝试确定某人是否被判刑的一种方式 you know has that quality of getting punched in the face falling down and 你知道有那种被打到脸上摔倒的感觉 getting back up again it says that happened to them in the past Paul 再次站起来，它说过去发生在他们身上的事保罗 mentioned people who have never ever failed that doesn't mean that they're 提到从未失败过的人并不意味着他们 not gonna fail this time but you just don't have very much information about 这次不会失败，但你只是没有太多信息 what happens when they get punched in the face right actually if they've never 如果他们从来没有被打到脸上，实际上会发生什么 failed they're gonna be afraid of failure and therefore they're gonna take 失败了，他们会害怕失败，因此他们会采取 a safe exit yeah and actually like to follow up on the what you can do to 安全退出是的，实际上喜欢跟进你能做些什么 examine determination is actually also just ask about the history of the 考察决心其实也只是询问历史 company so like air B&B is another one Air B&B 之类的公司是另一家 00:55 00:55 where they actually worked on that for a long time and you know Michael actually 他们实际上为此工作了很长时间，你知道迈克尔实际上 helped them out a lot with the pitch they pitched a number of investors 在向许多投资者推销时为他们提供了很多帮助 everyone said no when they came to interview I see Paul Graham actually 当他们来采访时每个人都说不 我实际上看到了保罗·格雷厄姆 tried to talk them out of the idea they're like you know you guys seem 试图说服他们打消他们好像你知道你们这些人的想法 really good but this idea is terrible can you work on something else and they 真的很好，但是这个想法很糟糕，你能做点别的吗？ were just like no right like they he tried to talk them out of it if if he 就像没有权利一样，他试图说服他们不要这样做，如果他 had talked to them out of it that probably would mean it was a bad idea 已经跟他们谈过了，这可能意味着这是一个坏主意 okay one more question so the question is what about like I 好的，还有一个问题，所以问题是像我一样 00:56 00:56 invest in things I don't know about what about things I do know about I have a 投资于我不知道的事物 对于我已知的事物怎么办 我有一个 trick here which is I don't know about anything 这里的技巧是我什么都不知道 I mean honestly like I think it's really easy to overestimate your own knowledge 我的意思是说实话，我认为很容易高估自己的知识 and experience so like I said I try to avoid learning too much from the past 和经验，就像我说的，我尽量避免从过去学到太多东西 specifically asked about email yeah I'm I am a little bit burnt out on email 特别询问了有关电子邮件的问题 是的，我对电子邮件有点精疲力竭 startups so there's like maybe kind of a high bar just because I know this is a 初创公司，所以可能有一个很高的门槛，因为我知道这是一个 case where I can take my knowledge and I put this earlier when you're talking to 在这种情况下，我可以利用我的知识，当你与我交谈时，我会更早地把它放在 the founder use your knowledge to probe and see if they have a good response and 创始人利用你的知识来探索，看看他们是否有良好的反应， so you know a lot of the email stuff they're like tweaking Gmail and I'm like 所以你知道很多电子邮件的东西，他们就像调整 Gmail，我就像 okay what if Google just adds this feature what are you gonna do know right 好吧，如果谷歌只是添加这个功能，你会怎么做？ like okay that's not a good answer but I have had good email startups front it 好吧，这不是一个好的答案，但我有很好的电子邮件初创公司在它前面 was actually recently in the news they just raised the big round from Sequoia I 实际上最近有新闻报道他们刚刚从红杉 I 筹集了大笔资金 00:57 00:57 think really great founder again Mathilde she's she's great I you know 再次认为创始人玛蒂尔德真的很棒，她很棒我你知道 that was an email thing but she could tell me a really clear story about why 那是一封电子邮件的事情，但她可以告诉我一个非常清楚的故事来说明原因 it wasn't just like a feature in Gmail laughs you almost have to unlearn things 这不仅仅是 Gmail 中的一个功能，你几乎必须忘记一些东西 that you think you know you know I I ran one of the very first ever personal 你认为你知道你知道我 我运行了有史以来第一个个人 services and I might have thought it was done and never invested in any personal 服务，我可能以为它已经完成并且从未投资于任何个人 service again and I think that would have been a pretty bad mistake so so I I 再次提供服务，我认为这将是一个非常严重的错误，所以我 think we give I think a little bit contradictory advice here all the time 我认为我们一直在这里给出我认为有点矛盾的建议 it's it's part of the game you should completely learn everything you can from 这是游戏的一部分，你应该从中学到一切 your past mistakes and ignore the past at the same time so so it's not very 你过去的错误，同时又忽略过去，所以这不是很 easy to be a good investor but that's why we're all here right so thanks a lot 成为一名优秀的投资者很容易，但这就是我们都在这里的原因，非常感谢 00:58 00:58 pop thank you [Applause] you 流行谢谢你[鼓掌]你